Musings of the Guru

By Larry Genereux

I am not really a mystic, but I have been nicknamed "Guru" a few times based on a rough pronounciation of my name which has a silent "x".

This page is intended to be a diversion for myself from the everyday hectic routine of technology and programming (which I enjoy), and at the same time provide a place to express some of my concerns and opinions. Consequently, it may or may not be interesting to anyone else.

Predictions for 4th Quarter 2000
Made on 10/17/00

Arafat/Barak Egyption ceasefire agreement fails

George W Bush is elected president

Oil prices exceed $45 barrel

* * * * * *


Most of the problems predicted for the Y2K computer date bug did not materialize as some soothsayers predicted. As a software developer, I can attest to the fact that the fizzle happened because of all the preparation and software fixes that were done. There would have been mass shutdown if only transportation systems were affected, not to mention banking, communications and other systems.

However, I believe that we are now experiencing fallout from a failure (or unwillingness) to correct Y2K problems in some oil refineries, some pipelines, and some offshore and deep oil wells. The result is high gasoline, diesel and fuel oil prices.

Officially, we have a fuel shortage because domestic requirements exceed refinery capacities, and also are limited by pipeline throughput. I believe these limitations were further squeezed by NOT fixing some facilities for the Y2K problem, resulting in increased shortages raising fuel prices. It would be tempting (and profitable) if fuel deliveries were reduced 5%, resulting in price increases of 50-100%.

And of course this doesn't even address the issue of any off shore oil wells that may have been shut down because the cost of fixing downhole embedded Y2K technology would have cost too much. So we are importing Iraqi oil TODAY, Oct. 2000. They are our sixth largest supplier.

Go figure!

Previous Musings

More to come

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